A market-entry decision on green hydrogen electrolyzers, backed by 300+ primary conversations.

1. 01 The decision

   The client was considering a $1.2B electrolyzer manufacturing plant in northern Germany. Three questions had to be answered before the investment committee would sign: which end-use segments would drive real 5-year demand, which regions would offer the cleanest regulatory economics, and which competitor was best positioned to over-build capacity.

2. 02 How we ran it

   A four-analyst team ran a 12-week engagement structured in three tranches. Tranche 1: demand-side segmentation across 6 end-use categories (steel, refining, mobility, chemicals, heating, export). Tranche 2: regional regulatory read on green-hydrogen subsidy schemes across 11 EU + 3 APAC markets. Tranche 3: competitor teardown of the 9 largest electrolyzer manufacturers with primary conversations across their supply chains — 340 primary interviews in total.

3. 03 What we shipped

   A three-volume study: demand model, regional regulatory playbook, competitor positioning. Live Excel workbooks for each. A two-day workshop with the investment committee. A confidential supplement identifying two competitor moves not yet public.

4. 04 What changed

   The investment committee approved the plant at a scoped $980M — 18% below the initial number, because our demand model showed the first-phase capacity could be smaller than proposed. The competitive supplement changed the client's partnership strategy: they signed an offtake deal with a downstream player we had identified as being under-covered by the market.

Client identity is anonymised in this write-up. On-record versions are available on request where the client has given explicit consent — reach the desk for named references.